Durham, New Hampshire USA - Future business activity in U.S. hotels rose in September according to the latest reading of the Hotels' future business conditions (HIL) indicator. e−forecasting.com's HIL, a composite indicator that gauges future monthly overall business conditions in the U.S. hotel industry, increased by 0.3% in September to 118.3, following an increase of 0.4% in August. The index is set to equal 100 in 2005.

Looking at HIL's six-month growth rate, which has historically confirmed the forthcoming turning points in U.S. hotel business activity, posted a positive rate of 4.4% in September, following a positive rate of 4.5% in August. This compares to a long-term annual growth rate of 3%, the same as the 30-year average annual growth rate of the industry's gross domestic product.

The probability of the hotel industry entering into recession in the near-term, which is detected in real-time from HIL with the help of sophisticated statistical techniques, registered 3.4% in September, up from 3.1% reported in August. When this recession-warning gauge passes the threshold probability of 50% for a more than three months, the U.S. hotel industry will enter a recession phase in its business cycle.

"Led by strong recovery in housing and an improving labor market, the leading indicator for hotel business activity increased for an eleventh month in a row ," said Maria Simos Sogard, CEO of e-forecasting.com.

Seven of the forward looking indicators of business activity that comprise Hotel Industry Leading (HIL) Indicator had a positive contribution to its change in September: Jobs Market; Hotel Profitability; Foreign Demand; Yield Curve; New Orders; Oil Prices and Housing Activity. Two indicators of future business activity had a negative or zero contribution to HIL's change in September: Hotel Worker Hours and Vacation Barometer.

"Given the recent path of the hotel predictive analytics, the latest US Monthly Hotel Forecast predicts in 2015 RevPAR to stay unchanged from 2014 levels" said Maria Sogard, CEO of e­forecasting.com. For a complimentary copy of the full US Monthly Hotel Forecast with two-year predictions email us at [email protected] with subject: US Hotel Forecast.

About HIP

The Hotel Industry Pulse, or HIP for short, is a hotel industry indicator that was created to fill the void of a real-time monthly indicator for the hotel industry that captures current conditions. The indicator provides useful information about the timing and degree of the industry"s link with the US business cycle for the last four decades. Simply put, it tracks monthly overall business conditions in the industry, like an industry GDP, and points in a timely way to the changes in direction from growth to recession or vice versa. The composite indicator is made with the following components: revenues from consumers staying at hotels and motels adjusted for inflation, room occupancy rate and hotel employment, along with other key economic factors which influence hotel business activity.

About e-forecasting.com

e-forecasting.com, an international economic research and consulting firm, offers forecasts of the economic environment using proprietary, real-time economic indicators to produce customized solutions for what"s next. e−forecasting.com collaborates with domestic and international clients and publications to provide timely economic content for use as predictive intelligence to strengthen its clients" competitive advantage.

Maria Simos Sogard
Chief Executive Officer
+011 (603) 868-7436
e-forecasting.com